Okay, bad attempt at a COPS theme song, but this is a popular question right now. No matter where I go, Brian...Where is Ophelia going to go?
And as much as I really hate to say this, I really don't know an answer that has high enough confidence.
Is this normal? Well some may argue yes :) But in reality, OPHELIA's situation is very unusal, thus the reason for concern.
The models are all over the place. Some take her near us, then drive it back south. Then out to sea.
Others brings it just out to sea.
Another set brings it near us...back south..then due west and crosses FL to only end up in the Gulf. Something NO ONE wants to see happen right now.
So what is the hold up? 2 Things:
1) Cold front in the plains. How strong will it be..and how far east will it make it to the coast.
2) Strength of high pressure just north of SC. Will it build more south ..or east?
Both factors are not unusually strong in either direction. In fact, they almost counter balance each other. Which is the problem. Who will win?
OPHELIA will wait it out...and see for herself. In the meantime, she has fuel to strengthen into a hurricane which is possible by Friday if not sooner.
I do suspect Hurricane Watches will go up for FL and perhaps GA with TS Watches possible as far north as Charleston. But this is purely speculation right now based on her trend drifting north.
This one is a tough one folks. I wish I had better detailed info to provide, but I am not going to lie to you and say we are 100% sure of this situation over that.
At this point, we are going to tell you what we know...and what the game plan is day by day.
Everyone in this area should be monitoring this situation VERY closely.
Stay tuned...
Thursday, September 08, 2005
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2 comments:
interesting!
Brian, your post and blog have been linked to from Unintended Consequences: "Charleston Braces For Ophelia" at: www.dougsimpson.com/blog/archives/000465.html
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